Risk-reward calculator with breakeven win rate

The risk-reward ratio is the distance to your target divided by the distance to your stop. A 25-pip stop and a 50-pip target is 1 : 2, and the win rate that only breaks even is 1 ÷ (1 + 2) = 33.3%.

The calculator above works it out for 28 currency pairs, gold, silver, four index CFDs and bitcoin. It shows the stop and target in pips or points and as prices, the ratio and the breakeven win rate before and after spread and commission, and what a stop-out would cost at your lot size.

How it works

1. Direction and levels. For a buy the stop sits below the entry and the target above it; for a sell, the other way round. Enter the levels as prices, or as distances in pips (points on indices and bitcoin) and let the calculator place them.
2. The ratio. The distance to the target divided by the distance to the stop.
3. Breakeven win rate. The share of trades that would have to reach the target, with the rest stopped out, for the two to cancel out.
4. Costs. The spread and a round-turn commission are paid on every trade. They make each loss bigger and each win smaller, so the ratio after costs is lower and the breakeven win rate higher.
5. Money. At your lot size, or at the size that risks a set share of your balance, the calculator shows the loss at the stop with costs, and what the move to the target is worth before costs. Both are hypothetical and leave out swap.

The risk-reward formula

R                  = target distance ÷ stop distance
breakeven win rate = 1 ÷ (1 + R)

costs, in price    = spread + commission per lot
                     ÷ value of a 1.0 move per lot
net R              = (target − costs) ÷ (stop + costs)
net breakeven      = (stop + costs) ÷ (stop + target)

“Net” means after costs. Distances are in price, or all in pips: the ratio is the same either way.

When the costs are as large as the distance to the target, no win rate breaks even, and the calculator says so.

Breakeven win rate by ratio

Before costs. Each row is 1 ÷ (1 + R).

A larger ratio needs fewer trades to reach the target, but a more distant target is usually reached less often. The table shows the trade-off; it does not say which side of it suits a strategy.

Worked examples

The prices and sizes are made up for illustration.

Costs weigh most on tight stops and targets. On a 25-pip stop and a 50-pip target the same 1.7 pips take the ratio from 1 : 2.00 to 1 : 1.81.

Common mistakes

• Levels on the wrong side. A buy’s stop above the entry is not a stop. The calculator warns instead of guessing.
• Leaving out costs. A 1 : 1 scalp that looks even can need two wins in three once the spread and commission are counted.
• Pips and points mixed up. On 5-digit prices one pip is 10 points. Check the stop and target read back in the results.
• Reading the ratio as a forecast. The ratio describes one trade’s shape. It says nothing about how often a trade reaches its target.

To size the trade from the stop, use the position size calculator. The drawdown calculator shows how long runs of losses at that size add up.

How PipWarden handles this

Every order PipWarden places carries a stop loss set from the market’s recent range (ATR) and a take profit at a fixed reward-to-risk ratio, so each trade’s ratio is set before it goes in. That says nothing about how often trades reach their targets, and PipWarden promises no win rate.

What it controls is the loss side. It sizes every order from your risk limit, using the tick value and volume step that MT5 reports for the symbol, rounds down, and skips a trade that would need less than the minimum lot rather than raising the risk. Your limits are checked before every order.

Open trades still run to their own stops, and gaps or slippage can make a loss larger than planned. PipWarden runs in MT5 on a Windows PC or VPS, with a broker that allows Expert Advisors; it does not run on a phone. See how it works, the features and which brokers work, and read the risk disclosure.